tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 300 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:00 MCO 15:49 14% 4% 17.3% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 3h 38m Minneapolis MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208 10h 07m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 9h 46m 100% 72%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 17:00 → PHX 19:40WN 1048 3h 25m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508 10h 20m 97% 71%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 17:30 → SEA 18:33AS 430 3h 00m Seattle SEA 21:33 → MCO 06:16 +1AS 394 9h 46m 100% 70%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225 8h 04m 99% 69%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 39m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → PDX 20:44 → SEA 21:56DL 3923 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Seattle SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448 7h 56m 93% 67%
UnitedDetails → PDX 11:05 → DEN 14:43UA 2793 3h 09m Denver DEN 17:52 → MCO 23:41UA 259 9h 36m 100% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 19:38 → SEA 20:33AS 2313 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Seattle SEA 21:33 → MCO 06:16 +1AS 394 7h 38m 55% 39%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 11:50 → MDW 17:45WN 3202 50m Chicago MDW 18:35 → MCO 22:10WN 2820 7h 20m 62% 37%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 17:40 → SAN 20:18AS 369 48m San Diego SAN 21:06 → MCO 05:18 +1AS 707 8h 38m 49% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON