Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3300 at 10:40, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3300 PDX 10:40 → MFR 11:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3300 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 10:40	MFR 11:53	9%	3%	0.8%	92%
AS 2163 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:45	MFR 18:48	13%	7%	2.2%	87%
AS 2125 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 14:52	MFR 15:54	15%	3%	0.0%	85%
AS 2266 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 22:04	MFR 23:06	21%	6%	0.5%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON