Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3097 at 14:30, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 3097 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 14:30	MSO 17:01	17%	6%	0.5%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	3h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	100%	91%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	2h 44m Denver	DEN 11:15 → MSO 13:19UA 1342	7h 19m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	2h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → MSO 00:28 +1DL 1723	6h 14m	99%	83%
United Details →	PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375	1h 36m Denver	DEN 14:00 → MSO 16:20UA 4783 · flown by SkyWest	6h 30m	96%	79%
Alaska Details →	PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon	2h 12m Seattle	SEA 08:05 → MSO 10:42AS 3101 · flown by SkyWest	4h 42m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:30AS 3408 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → MSO 22:55AS 2154 · flown by Horizon	6h 25m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon	2h 11m Seattle	SEA 16:54 → MSO 19:19AS 2123 · flown by Horizon	4h 31m	100%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	48m Seattle	SEA 08:05 → MSO 10:42AS 3101 · flown by SkyWest	3h 23m	73%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON