Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2369 PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AS 1429 PDX 10:30 → MSP 15:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2369 Delta Flight history →	PDX 06:00	MSP 11:14	3%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 2359 Delta Flight history →	PDX 00:33	MSP 05:49	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2415 Delta Flight history →	PDX 11:46	MSP 17:01	9%	4%	0.6%	90%
DL 2167 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:45	MSP 19:03	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 1661 Delta Flight history →	PDX 15:00	MSP 20:22	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
AS 1429 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	MSP 15:58	11%	3%	0.6%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON