Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 264 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 264 PDX 05:10 → OAK 06:55 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3205 PDX 22:40 → OAK 00:30 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 264 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 05:10	OAK 06:55	2%	1%	0.6%	96%
AS 3055 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 09:29	OAK 11:21	7%	3%	0.6%	96%
WN 4928 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 12:25	OAK 14:10	11%	4%	0.6%	83%
WN 3205 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 22:40	OAK 00:30	18%	7%	0.6%	29%
AS 2035 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 15:08	OAK 16:55	0%	0%	0.0%	100%
AS 2082 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:33	OAK 19:23	2%	0%	0.0%	98%
AS 2036 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 19:54	OAK 21:41	10%	3%	0.0%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON