tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Sacramento, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 739 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:00 OGG 09:58 13% 3% 0.7% 88%
AS 353 Alaska Flight history → PDX 17:45 OGG 20:40 18% 4% 0.7% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:30 → SMF 07:00WN 3211 2h 00m Sacramento SMF 09:00 → OGG 11:20WN 479 8h 50m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 14m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010 8h 30m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344 2h 10m Las Vegas LAS 09:20 → OGG 12:35WN 1457 10h 35m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:15 → SEA 12:30DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 9h 41m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 3h 37m Los Angeles LAX 16:55 → OGG 19:34DL 418 11h 41m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 29m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 13h 05m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 11:16 → SFO 13:07UA 1613 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 11h 01m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 3h 03m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 12h 12m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499 48m Seattle SEA 08:05 → OGG 11:19AS 245 8h 00m 73% 56%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813 56m Honolulu HNL 14:24 → OGG 15:08AS 1126 7h 38m 66% 46%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:46 → HNL 10:36AS 879 48m Honolulu HNL 11:24 → OGG 12:07AS 1086 7h 21m 56% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON