tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 1449 at 07:36, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1449 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:36 ONT 09:56 11% 2% 0.7% 92%
AS 2093 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 14:30 ONT 16:52 8% 2% 0.0% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:30 → SMF 07:00WN 3211 2h 10m Sacramento SMF 09:10 → ONT 10:30WN 3805 5h 00m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 15:35 → ONT 16:30DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest 6h 45m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172 6h 25m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 07:25 → SJC 09:15WN 3209 1h 35m San Jose SJC 10:50 → ONT 12:05WN 3151 4h 40m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344 1h 55m Las Vegas LAS 09:05 → ONT 10:10WN 4179 5h 10m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 07:55WN 4666 2h 10m Phoenix PHX 10:05 → ONT 11:20WN 431 6h 00m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 6h 34m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 47m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 12:03 → SEA 13:03AS 3078 · flown by SkyWest 47m Seattle SEA 13:50 → ONT 16:30AS 571 4h 27m 67% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON