Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2933 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2933 PDX 06:07 → ORD 12:17 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3303 PDX 13:45 → ORD 19:50 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2933 American Flight history →	PDX 06:07	ORD 12:17	7%	4%	0.8%	83%
UA 2306 United Flight history →	PDX 07:00	ORD 13:13	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2094 United Flight history →	PDX 22:40	ORD 04:45	10%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 1490 United Flight history →	PDX 23:40	ORD 05:45	12%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 1641 United Flight history →	PDX 10:46	ORD 17:00	15%	5%	0.6%	76%
AS 376 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 22:59	ORD 05:00	15%	4%	0.9%	87%
AS 324 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	ORD 13:13	16%	4%	0.8%	74%
UA 2336 United Flight history →	PDX 14:25	ORD 20:38	19%	6%	0.6%	68%
AA 2977 American Flight history →	PDX 23:15	ORD 05:14	20%	7%	0.9%	63%
AA 2284 American Flight history →	PDX 11:26	ORD 17:42	22%	7%	0.7%	70%
AA 3303 American Flight history →	PDX 13:45	ORD 19:50	24%	7%	0.7%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → ORD 08:30DL 1544	5h 57m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON