Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4666 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4666 PDX 05:20 → PHX 07:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 1048 PDX 17:00 → PHX 19:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4666 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 05:20	PHX 07:55	3%	1%	0.5%	83%
AA 2658 American Flight history →	PDX 05:20	PHX 08:00	6%	3%	0.7%	90%
WN 3207 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 09:15	PHX 11:50	9%	3%	0.6%	97%
AS 1349 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	PHX 09:49	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 716 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	PHX 13:20	16%	3%	0.6%	90%
AS 731 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:45	PHX 17:29	23%	5%	0.6%	78%
AS 746 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:51	PHX 20:37	24%	6%	0.7%	78%
WN 3208 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 14:05	PHX 16:45	27%	7%	0.6%	33%
AA 2288 American Flight history →	PDX 17:28	PHX 20:10	28%	9%	0.7%	65%
AA 2986 American Flight history →	PDX 15:31	PHX 18:12	28%	10%	0.7%	60%
WN 1048 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 17:00	PHX 19:40	33%	10%	0.6%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON