tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3022 at 17:36, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3022 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → PDX 17:36 PSP 20:14 20% 6% 0.8% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 5h 56m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 3h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 08:10 → PSP 09:56UA 5904 · flown by SkyWest 4h 41m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 44m Denver DEN 11:15 → PSP 12:28UA 1294 7h 28m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → PSP 11:50AA 2330 6h 30m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → PDX 13:14 → SFO 15:05UA 2279 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 18:38 → PSP 20:26UA 5705 · flown by SkyWest 7h 12m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → PDX 11:16 → SFO 13:07UA 1613 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 15:56 → PSP 17:46UA 5354 · flown by SkyWest 6h 30m 99% 75%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499 3h 03m Seattle SEA 10:20 → PSP 13:14AS 692 6h 55m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PDX 13:14 → SFO 15:05UA 2279 51m San Francisco SFO 15:56 → PSP 17:46UA 5354 · flown by SkyWest 4h 32m 74% 56%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 17:36 → SFO 19:30AS 504 49m San Francisco SFO 20:19 → PSP 21:57AS 3356 · flown by SkyWest 4h 21m 65% 47%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:42 → SFO 12:39AS 1445 52m San Francisco SFO 13:31 → PSP 15:11AS 3081 · flown by SkyWest 4h 29m 62% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON