Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 22–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 577 PDX 07:32 → SAN 10:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 2809 PDX 13:05 → SAN 15:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 577 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:32	SAN 10:05	22%	4%	0.7%	80%
AS 1394 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:46	SAN 13:27	26%	4%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
AS 1312 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:55	SAN 17:29	29%	6%	0.7%	76%
AS 369 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:40	SAN 20:18	31%	8%	0.7%	57%
WN 2809 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 13:05	SAN 15:30	31%	8%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON