Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 2317 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 10:47	SBA 13:05	7%	0%	2.3%	93%
AS 2029 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:48	SBA 20:04	9%	4%	1.1%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 14m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	2h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	6h 18m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344	2h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → SBA 10:40WN 2336	5h 40m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	59m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	88%	81%
American Details →	PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658	2h 04m Phoenix	PHX 10:04 → SBA 11:40AA 4993 · flown by SkyWest	6h 20m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon	1h 47m Seattle	SEA 07:40 → SBA 10:14AS 2142 · flown by Horizon	5h 14m	96%	79%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	2h 55m Denver	DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671	8h 02m	99%	79%
United Details →	PDX 13:14 → SFO 15:05UA 2279	3h 11m San Francisco	SFO 18:16 → SBA 19:43UA 5962 · flown by SkyWest	6h 29m	100%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON