Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1896 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1896 PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 1445 PDX 10:42 → SFO 12:39 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1896 United Flight history →	PDX 05:15	SFO 07:01	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2818 United Flight history →	PDX 07:00	SFO 08:56	18%	7%	0.6%	35%
AS 236 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:49	SFO 16:40	22%	9%	0.6%	73%
AS 504 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:36	SFO 19:30	22%	9%	0.6%	59%
UA 2279 United Flight history →	PDX 13:14	SFO 15:05	23%	11%	0.6%	40%
UA 1613 United Flight history →	PDX 11:16	SFO 13:07	24%	9%	0.6%	38%
UA 1596 United Flight history →	PDX 08:35	SFO 10:25	24%	8%	0.6%	56%
AS 526 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:19	SFO 09:16	25%	11%	0.6%	59%
AS 1445 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:42	SFO 12:39	27%	10%	0.6%	55%
AS 2112 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 21:45	SFO 23:36	36%	11%	1.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON