Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3209 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3209 PDX 07:25 → SJC 09:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3210 PDX 17:20 → SJC 19:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3209 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 07:25	SJC 09:15	5%	2%	0.6%	100%
AS 3210 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 14:30	SJC 16:25	9%	4%	0.5%	96%
AS 1632 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 11:45	SJC 13:35	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 678 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:30	SJC 23:21	14%	5%	0.6%	81%
WN 1670 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 21:40	SJC 23:30	26%	9%	0.6%	30%
WN 3210 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 17:20	SJC 19:05	27%	7%	0.5%	62%
AS 2080 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 07:15	SJC 09:09	4%	2%	3.8%	96%
AS 2113 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:40	SJC 19:32	19%	3%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON