Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1270 PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 1238 PDX 19:20 → SLC 22:13 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1270 Delta Flight history →	PDX 05:45	SLC 08:33	3%	2%	0.6%	98%
DL 1203 Delta Flight history →	PDX 09:45	SLC 12:33	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 3112 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 10:55	SLC 13:59	9%	4%	0.5%	92%
DL 1209 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:15	SLC 16:07	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 3120 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 14:30	SLC 17:29	11%	4%	0.5%	96%
DL 1244 Delta Flight history →	PDX 17:14	SLC 20:06	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
AS 3291 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 17:40	SLC 20:41	11%	4%	0.5%	81%
DL 1238 Delta Flight history →	PDX 19:20	SLC 22:13	12%	4%	0.6%	91%
AS 2333 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 07:52	SLC 10:45	9%	5%	0.0%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON