Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3211 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3211 PDX 05:30 → SMF 07:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 3213 PDX 20:15 → SMF 21:50 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3211 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 05:30	SMF 07:00	2%	1%	0.5%	98%
AS 485 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 08:15	SMF 09:48	8%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 300 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 10:00	SMF 11:25	11%	3%	0.5%	69%
WN 3212 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 12:15	SMF 13:45	12%	4%	0.5%	81%
AS 1622 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:59	SMF 19:37	15%	4%	0.6%	79%
WN 3214 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 22:10	SMF 23:45	23%	8%	0.5%	23%
WN 3213 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 20:15	SMF 21:50	27%	8%	0.5%	58%
AS 2399 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 11:00	SMF 12:33	9%	1%	0.6%	91%
AS 2405 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 14:32	SMF 16:06	12%	0%	1.9%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON