Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1404 PDX 07:00 → SNA 09:37 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 264 PDX 14:48 → SNA 17:19 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1404 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	SNA 09:37	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
AS 518 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 19:59	SNA 22:30	11%	2%	0.7%	96%
AS 588 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:38	SNA 13:15	13%	2%	0.7%	91%
AS 264 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:48	SNA 17:19	14%	3%	0.7%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON