tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1635 Alaska Flight history → PDX 10:49 STL 16:37 18% 4% 0.7% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → STL 10:28DL 3188 7h 55m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 5h 48m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 04m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 5h 42m 96% 84%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 06:00 → MDW 11:50WN 1148 1h 10m Chicago MDW 13:00 → STL 14:10WN 2902 6h 10m 97% 83%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:30 → SMF 07:00WN 3211 3h 25m Sacramento SMF 10:25 → STL 16:05WN 920 8h 35m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 10h 16m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 2h 02m Seattle SEA 07:55 → STL 13:52AS 618 6h 52m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → PDX 06:07 → ORD 12:17AA 2933 3h 56m Chicago ORD 16:13 → STL 17:46AA 4537 · flown by Republic 9h 39m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON