Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3115 PDX 21:45 → STS 23:30 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 3483 PDX 14:30 → STS 16:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3115 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 21:45	STS 23:30	13%	5%	0.8%	90%
AS 3483 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 14:30	STS 16:15	15%	4%	0.7%	80%
AS 2330 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 10:45	STS 12:26	8%	0%	0.0%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON