Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4735 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 10:50	ACK 12:26	6%	2%	0.8%	89%
AA 4545 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 13:33	ACK 15:08	7%	3%	0.9%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nantucket on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHL 07:18 → BOS 08:43AA 3225	52m Boston	BOS 09:35 → ACK 10:49AA 4708 · flown by Republic	3h 31m	92%	84%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	3h 10m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → ACK 13:20AA 3863 · flown by Envoy	7h 20m	100%	83%
JetBlue Details →	PHL 09:20 → BOS 10:43B6 1160	1h 29m Boston	BOS 12:12 → ACK 13:03B6 1352	3h 43m	95%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON