Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1269 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 1269 PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 1147 PHL 16:40 → ATL 19:12 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1269 Delta Flight history →	PHL 05:15	ATL 07:19	4%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1152 Delta Flight history →	PHL 06:25	ATL 08:28	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1100 Delta Flight history →	PHL 10:40	ATL 12:49	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 1180 Delta Flight history →	PHL 08:05	ATL 10:11	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2270 Delta Flight history →	PHL 12:02	ATL 14:05	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2279 Delta Flight history →	PHL 14:32	ATL 16:40	11%	4%	0.7%	81%
DL 2131 Delta Flight history →	PHL 16:08	ATL 18:32	12%	4%	0.6%	70%
AA 621 American Flight history →	PHL 11:15	ATL 13:35	12%	4%	0.6%	73%
AA 5037 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 07:00	ATL 09:15	13%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 5461 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 09:44	ATL 12:00	13%	3%	0.8%	80%
DL 854 Delta	PHL 19:00	ATL 21:44	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 2551 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 06:30	ATL 09:05	18%	7%	1.0%	71%
DL 1692 Delta Flight history →	PHL 17:17	ATL 19:29	19%	5%	0.7%	62%
AA 443 American Flight history →	PHL 21:58	ATL 00:15	19%	7%	0.8%	77%
AA 2983 American Flight history →	PHL 15:28	ATL 17:49	22%	8%	0.7%	62%
F9 2297 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 08:30	ATL 11:00	22%	8%	1.0%	71%
AA 3041 American Flight history →	PHL 17:35	ATL 19:55	25%	9%	0.7%	69%
F9 1101 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 13:32	ATL 15:50	34%	10%	1.0%	60%
F9 1147 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 16:40	ATL 19:12	40%	15%	1.0%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON