Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1407 at 08:32 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1407 PHL 08:32 → AUS 11:23 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1314 PHL 17:39 → AUS 20:30 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1407 American Flight history →	PHL 08:32	AUS 11:23	17%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 1401 American Flight history →	PHL 11:03	AUS 13:52	22%	5%	0.6%	76%
AA 1314 American Flight history →	PHL 17:39	AUS 20:30	28%	8%	0.8%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	51m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976	5h 12m	95%	86%
Southwest Details →	PHL 09:00 → BNA 10:05WN 3215	1h 25m Nashville	BNA 11:30 → AUS 13:40WN 450	5h 40m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 38m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON