Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 668 at 19:55, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 668 PHL 19:55 → BGR 21:54 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 668 American Flight history →	PHL 19:55	BGR 21:54	19%	7%	0.8%	69%
AA 6123 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 08:55	BGR 10:51	10%	3%	0.0%	90%
AA 6038 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 14:30	BGR 16:24	28%	10%	5.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON