Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5064 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 15:41	BHM 17:17	22%	10%	0.8%	65%
AA 5402 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 22:05	BHM 23:40	24%	10%	1.1%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 55m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164	4h 32m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	6h 19m	98%	87%
American Details →	PHL 05:00 → DFW 07:35AA 1670	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:50 → BHM 11:46AA 3469 · flown by Envoy	7h 46m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163	5h 30m	99%	83%
American Details →	PHL 08:58 → ORD 10:38AA 2095	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 13:01 → BHM 15:01AA 3971 · flown by Envoy	7h 03m	97%	83%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	3h 37m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → BHM 12:09AA 4932 · flown by SkyWest	7h 09m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	6h 26m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHL 19:00 → ORD 20:33UA 2797	57m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → BHM 23:34UA 4447 · flown by GoJet	5h 34m	74%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON