Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3215 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3215 PHL 09:00 → BNA 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 5580 PHL 17:44 → BNA 19:04 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3215 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 09:00	BNA 10:05	8%	2%	0.6%	76%
AA 5576 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 07:05	BNA 08:25	8%	3%	1.4%	93%
AA 3221 American Flight history →	PHL 09:35	BNA 10:51	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
WN 3216 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 14:00	BNA 15:10	16%	7%	0.6%	65%
AA 1506 American Flight history →	PHL 13:38	BNA 14:51	17%	7%	0.7%	70%
AA 1505 American Flight history →	PHL 15:41	BNA 17:01	21%	7%	0.8%	60%
AA 2277 American Flight history →	PHL 21:30	BNA 22:46	21%	7%	1.1%	62%
WN 3217 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 20:25	BNA 21:50	22%	9%	0.7%	72%
AA 5580 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 17:44	BNA 19:04	24%	7%	2.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON