Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5740 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 5740 PHL 06:00 → BOS 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 560 PHL 20:55 → BOS 22:26 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5740 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 06:00	BOS 07:30	3%	1%	0.6%	92%
DL 5845 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 09:30	BOS 10:58	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 3225 American Flight history →	PHL 07:18	BOS 08:43	7%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 2783 American Flight history →	PHL 08:27	BOS 09:55	8%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 1416 American Flight history →	PHL 10:30	BOS 12:03	9%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 5805 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 13:10	BOS 14:40	11%	4%	0.6%	72%
B6 1160 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 09:20	BOS 10:43	11%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 5714 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 19:55	BOS 21:49	14%	5%	0.9%	70%
AA 2882 American Flight history →	PHL 12:50	BOS 14:23	15%	7%	0.7%	80%
DL 5706 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 17:35	BOS 19:07	19%	6%	0.8%	67%
AA 1874 American Flight history →	PHL 22:20	BOS 23:50	20%	8%	0.9%	72%
AA 3327 American Flight history →	PHL 19:41	BOS 21:12	25%	10%	0.8%	52%
AA 3116 American Flight history →	PHL 15:20	BOS 16:47	26%	10%	0.7%	47%
AA 1776 American Flight history →	PHL 17:30	BOS 18:57	27%	11%	0.8%	64%
B6 560 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 20:55	BOS 22:26	28%	12%	0.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON