Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3139 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 3139 PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4353 PHL 15:50 → CLT 17:46 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3139 American Flight history →	PHL 06:00	CLT 07:53	5%	2%	0.8%	94%
AA 1494 American Flight history →	PHL 08:20	CLT 10:18	9%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 1180 American Flight history →	PHL 10:35	CLT 12:28	11%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 1311 American Flight history →	PHL 12:07	CLT 14:00	12%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 793 American Flight history →	PHL 13:49	CLT 15:45	13%	5%	0.8%	81%
AA 2573 American Flight history →	PHL 15:50	CLT 17:53	15%	6%	0.8%	85%
AA 3030 American Flight history →	PHL 16:55	CLT 18:58	16%	7%	0.8%	72%
AA 1661 American Flight history →	PHL 19:35	CLT 21:29	21%	7%	0.8%	71%
F9 2387 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 08:00	CLT 09:56	22%	8%	1.1%	80%
F9 4353 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 15:50	CLT 17:46	35%	13%	1.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON