Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4361 at 21:50 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4361 PHL 21:50 → CMH 23:41 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1481 PHL 17:45 → CMH 19:31 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4361 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 21:50	CMH 23:41	9%	4%	1.0%	81%
AA 2905 American Flight history →	PHL 10:35	CMH 12:21	11%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 5640 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:21	CMH 10:10	12%	3%	1.2%	88%
AA 5210 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 12:51	CMH 14:40	13%	4%	1.3%	81%
AA 2397 American Flight history →	PHL 15:45	CMH 17:31	17%	6%	0.7%	68%
AA 1481 American Flight history →	PHL 17:45	CMH 19:31	22%	7%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON