Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5605 PHL 08:50 → CVG 10:55 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 5534 PHL 17:40 → CVG 19:42 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5605 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:50	CVG 10:55	16%	5%	0.9%	87%
AA 5514 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:40	CVG 12:45	17%	5%	0.9%	83%
AA 5583 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:40	CVG 21:53	24%	6%	1.4%	68%
AA 5515 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 15:25	CVG 17:26	24%	6%	0.9%	64%
AA 5534 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 17:40	CVG 19:42	25%	7%	1.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON