tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Dallas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3218 Southwest Flight history → PHL 18:30 DAL 21:00 30% 7% 0.7% 32%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PHL 05:00 → DEN 07:00WN 2664 1h 45m Denver DEN 08:45 → DAL 11:40WN 1360 7h 40m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → PHL 06:05 → STL 07:25WN 3227 2h 20m St Louis STL 09:45 → DAL 11:25WN 4196 6h 20m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 56m Atlanta ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441 5h 06m 96% 87%
SouthwestDetails → PHL 09:00 → BNA 10:05WN 3215 2h 15m Nashville BNA 12:20 → DAL 14:15WN 5046 6h 15m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115 5h 59m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → PHL 08:00 → MDW 09:05WN 4202 3h 15m Chicago MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757 7h 35m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512 7h 58m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780 8h 14m 100% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON