tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5586 at 19:19, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5586 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 19:19 DAY 21:25 17% 8% 2.9% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 09:00 → DAY 10:30DL 3108 5h 15m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → PHL 05:15 → ORD 06:38AA 1652 2h 57m Chicago ORD 09:35 → DAY 11:59AA 3786 · flown by Envoy 6h 44m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → DAY 15:04DL 2763 6h 59m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:17 → DAY 17:50DL 3088 7h 10m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHL 08:20 → CLT 10:18AA 1494 1h 44m Charlotte CLT 12:02 → DAY 13:44AA 5490 · flown by PSA 5h 24m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHL 08:05 → ORD 09:34UA 1811 1h 55m Chicago ORD 11:29 → DAY 13:47UA 5811 · flown by SkyWest 5h 42m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 22:20 → DAY 23:51DL 3167 6h 34m 93% 77%
AmericanDetails → PHL 10:35 → CLT 12:28AA 1180 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 15:30 → DAY 17:12AA 5198 · flown by PSA 6h 37m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHL 19:00 → ORD 20:33UA 2797 47m Chicago ORD 21:20 → DAY 23:49UA 4589 · flown by GoJet 4h 49m 66% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON