tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5019 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 19:25 DCA 20:41 28% 11% 2.3% 54%
AA 5636 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 15:29 DCA 16:44 33% 10% 1.5% 43%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:00 → BOS 07:30DL 5740 · flown by Republic 1h 45m Boston BOS 09:15 → DCA 11:07DL 5693 · flown by Republic 5h 07m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → PHL 07:18 → BOS 08:43AA 3225 2h 50m Boston BOS 11:33 → DCA 13:25AA 4349 · flown by Republic 6h 07m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → PHL 09:00 → BDL 10:22AA 5997 · flown by Piedmont 1h 43m Hartford BDL 12:05 → DCA 13:44AA 4754 · flown by Republic 4h 44m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → PHL 06:05 → STL 07:25WN 3227 1h 05m St Louis STL 08:30 → DCA 11:25WN 3905 5h 20m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 6h 12m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → PHL 10:40 → HYA 12:15AA 4561 · flown by Republic 1h 51m Hyannis HYA 14:06 → DCA 15:59AA 4557 · flown by Republic 5h 19m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074 1h 35m Chicago ORD 10:45 → DCA 13:59AA 4809 · flown by Republic 6h 17m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 2h 30m Chicago ORD 10:00 → DCA 13:04UA 1381 7h 04m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHL 08:15 → MIA 11:12AA 2184 47m Miami MIA 11:59 → DCA 14:44AA 1606 6h 29m 66% 52%
JetBlueDetails → PHL 08:05 → FLL 10:53B6 745 49m Fort Lauderdale FLL 11:42 → DCA 14:15B6 1680 6h 10m 63% 46%
AmericanDetails → PHL 14:26 → MIA 17:27AA 3265 58m Miami MIA 18:25 → DCA 20:59AA 667 6h 33m 69% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON