Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2664 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2664 PHL 05:00 → DEN 07:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3221 PHL 16:45 → DEN 18:50 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2664 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 05:00	DEN 07:00	6%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 2307 United Flight history →	PHL 08:00	DEN 10:01	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 1537 United Flight history →	PHL 10:00	DEN 12:01	12%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 3312 American Flight history →	PHL 09:35	DEN 11:56	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1759 American Flight history →	PHL 11:43	DEN 14:03	15%	4%	0.6%	77%
UA 2644 United Flight history →	PHL 16:14	DEN 18:25	17%	6%	0.6%	60%
WN 3220 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 12:35	DEN 14:30	19%	4%	0.6%	63%
AA 2500 American Flight history →	PHL 20:03	DEN 22:25	22%	5%	0.7%	59%
F9 2513 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 12:54	DEN 15:08	27%	9%	0.9%	72%
AA 3158 American Flight history →	PHL 17:30	DEN 19:45	28%	6%	0.7%	64%
F9 3339 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 20:37	DEN 23:04	30%	8%	1.2%	67%
WN 3221 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 16:45	DEN 18:50	34%	7%	0.6%	33%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	52m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 37m	94%	84%
Southwest Details →	PHL 08:00 → MDW 09:05WN 4202	50m Chicago	MDW 09:55 → DEN 11:30WN 2654	5h 30m	89%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON