Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1670 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1670 PHL 05:00 → DFW 07:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 3985 PHL 20:24 → DFW 23:07 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1670 American Flight history →	PHL 05:00	DFW 07:35	6%	2%	0.8%	94%
AA 2964 American Flight history →	PHL 07:09	DFW 09:50	9%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 1692 American Flight history →	PHL 08:20	DFW 11:03	12%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 812 American Flight history →	PHL 09:07	DFW 11:45	13%	4%	0.8%	63%
AA 417 American Flight history →	PHL 11:02	DFW 13:38	13%	5%	0.8%	76%
AA 415 American Flight history →	PHL 12:52	DFW 15:31	15%	6%	0.8%	73%
AA 402 American Flight history →	PHL 15:00	DFW 17:50	18%	6%	0.8%	68%
AA 2356 American Flight history →	PHL 16:22	DFW 19:09	19%	7%	0.8%	69%
AA 808 American Flight history →	PHL 20:12	DFW 22:53	23%	7%	1.1%	66%
AA 2947 American Flight history →	PHL 17:38	DFW 20:25	26%	7%	1.1%	55%
F9 3985 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 20:24	DFW 23:07	35%	12%	2.0%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	47m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746	5h 14m	91%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON