tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5165 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5165 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 10:35 DSM 12:34 16% 5% 0.9% 85%
AA 5352 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 20:05 DSM 22:04 28% 11% 1.6% 32%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704 6h 30m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094 8h 09m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 12m Chicago ORD 08:42 → DSM 10:17UA 1803 5h 17m 98% 89%
SouthwestDetails → PHL 05:00 → DEN 07:00WN 2664 3h 00m Denver DEN 10:00 → DSM 12:50WN 1524 8h 50m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074 2h 19m Chicago ORD 11:29 → DSM 13:04AA 4676 · flown by Republic 6h 22m 97% 86%
SouthwestDetails → PHL 08:00 → MDW 09:05WN 4202 1h 05m Chicago MDW 10:10 → DSM 11:30WN 1771 4h 30m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHL 08:05 → ORD 09:34UA 1811 3h 25m Chicago ORD 12:59 → DSM 14:27UA 1781 7h 22m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 8h 12m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHL 19:00 → ORD 20:33UA 2797 52m Chicago ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839 4h 56m 69% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON