Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1540 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1540 PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1391 PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1540 Delta Flight history →	PHL 06:10	DTW 07:48	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 2968 Delta Flight history →	PHL 09:46	DTW 11:31	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 2331 Delta Flight history →	PHL 12:36	DTW 14:20	12%	3%	0.7%	92%
F9 2021 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 06:26	DTW 08:17	12%	6%	1.2%	72%
AA 5427 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 13:58	DTW 15:54	13%	5%	1.3%	61%
AA 5169 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 22:04	DTW 23:59	15%	8%	1.7%	80%
AA 5167 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 16:48	DTW 18:45	15%	7%	1.3%	64%
DL 1686 Delta Flight history →	PHL 20:10	DTW 22:15	18%	5%	0.8%	74%
DL 1391 Delta Flight history →	PHL 17:28	DTW 19:15	23%	6%	0.8%	70%
AA 5876 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 08:20	DTW 10:27	5%	0%	0.0%	95%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON