Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5173 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 11:02	ECP 12:47	17%	5%	1.9%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	6h 33m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:31DL 1359	7h 06m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	6h 49m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494	7h 14m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	6h 53m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	6h 32m	100%	85%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	1h 38m Charlotte	CLT 09:31 → ECP 10:27AA 5179 · flown by PSA	5h 27m	99%	84%
American Details →	PHL 08:58 → ORD 10:38AA 2095	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 12:30 → ECP 15:03AA 4534 · flown by Republic	7h 05m	96%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON