tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 1898 at 10:30, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1898 American Flight history → PHL 10:30 EYW 13:40 13% 4% 4.3% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 09:06 → EYW 11:00DL 1281 5h 45m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472 6h 58m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 2h 07m Charlotte CLT 10:00 → EYW 12:14AA 1826 6h 14m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 17:58 → EYW 19:56DL 2815 7h 54m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → MIA 08:56AA 1252 59m Miami MIA 09:55 → EYW 10:55AA 3515 · flown by Envoy 4h 55m 90% 75%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 3h 25m Chicago ORD 10:55 → EYW 15:19UA 3690 · flown by Republic 9h 19m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168 6h 43m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → PHL 12:07 → CLT 14:00AA 1311 2h 32m Charlotte CLT 16:32 → EYW 18:48AA 2533 6h 41m 97% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON