Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1850 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 1850 PHL 07:04 → FLL 09:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 2275 PHL 18:09 → FLL 21:04 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1850 American Flight history →	PHL 07:04	FLL 09:55	13%	3%	1.4%	91%
B6 375 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 06:00	FLL 08:47	13%	4%	1.1%	71%
AA 695 American Flight history →	PHL 10:45	FLL 13:38	17%	5%	1.2%	83%
F9 2609 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 06:00	FLL 08:53	17%	5%	1.4%	74%
AA 1855 American Flight history →	PHL 12:12	FLL 15:05	22%	6%	1.2%	66%
B6 745 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 08:05	FLL 10:53	23%	6%	1.2%	90%worse than usual
AA 3241 American Flight history →	PHL 14:05	FLL 16:58	25%	7%	1.8%	54%
AA 1864 American Flight history →	PHL 19:20	FLL 22:25	27%	9%	4.6%	69%
AA 2185 American Flight history →	PHL 18:30	FLL 21:24	30%	9%	5.1%	50%
F9 4455 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 14:59	FLL 17:59	39%	15%	1.9%	74%worse than usual
B6 2275 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 18:09	FLL 21:04	40%	16%	5.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON