Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5614 at 11:03 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 5614 PHL 11:03 → GRR 13:13 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest G4 3491 PHL 17:38 → GRR 19:43 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5614 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 11:03	GRR 13:13	12%	5%	1.4%	84%
AA 5274 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 16:22	GRR 18:28	17%	8%	1.5%	69%
AA 5493 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 21:50	GRR 23:58	19%	9%	2.1%	73%
G4 3491 Allegiant Flight history →	PHL 17:38	GRR 19:43	23%	12%	0.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON