Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5518 at 15:20, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5518 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 15:20	GSO 16:59	25%	9%	0.9%	60%
AA 6012 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 22:10	GSO 23:58	12%	1%	6.9%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → GSO 11:34DL 3052	6h 19m	100%	89%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 11:12 → GSO 12:17AA 5796 · flown by Piedmont	6h 17m	100%	88%
American Details →	PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074	2h 05m Chicago	ORD 11:15 → GSO 14:19AA 3744 · flown by Envoy	6h 37m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → GSO 15:30DL 2539	4h 50m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:49 → GSO 14:04DL 3060	5h 59m	96%	84%
American Details →	PHL 10:35 → ORD 12:09AA 1041	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 15:08 → GSO 18:12AA 3932 · flown by Envoy	7h 37m	100%	83%
American Details →	PHL 15:50 → CLT 17:53AA 2573	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 21:25 → GSO 22:24AA 4054 · flown by Envoy	6h 34m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 17:52 → GSO 19:11DL 1604	7h 09m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON