Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3693 PHL 06:10 → IAD 07:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 3593 PHL 15:10 → IAD 16:18 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3693 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 06:10	IAD 07:19	4%	2%	0.7%	97%
UA 3593 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 15:10	IAD 16:18	12%	4%	0.7%	86%
UA 6235 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 10:39	IAD 11:55	14%	2%	3.4%	86%
UA 4587 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 19:45	IAD 21:10	16%	13%	11.4%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON