Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 584 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 584 PHL 06:15 → IAH 08:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3021 PHL 19:55 → IAH 22:49 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 584 United Flight history →	PHL 06:15	IAH 08:44	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 2038 United Flight history →	PHL 13:04	IAH 15:35	12%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 1927 American Flight history →	PHL 08:57	IAH 11:41	14%	3%	0.8%	81%
AA 1925 American Flight history →	PHL 13:02	IAH 15:47	16%	5%	0.8%	81%
AA 3021 American Flight history →	PHL 19:55	IAH 22:49	17%	7%	0.9%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON