Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 10–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4637 PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 1247 PHL 22:00 → IND 23:58 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4637 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 18:19	IND 20:45	10%	5%	0.9%	76%
AA 5240 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:45	IND 12:55	11%	4%	1.1%	86%
AA 5209 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:20	IND 10:28	12%	5%	1.0%	68%
AA 5592 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 14:11	IND 16:18	13%	7%	1.2%	70%
AA 1957 American Flight history →	PHL 16:23	IND 18:28	19%	7%	0.7%	61%
AA 1247 American Flight history →	PHL 22:00	IND 23:58	20%	7%	0.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON