Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2916 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2916 PHL 08:30 → JAX 10:57 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2815 PHL 10:00 → JAX 12:19 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2916 American Flight history →	PHL 08:30	JAX 10:57	10%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 5248 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 13:31	JAX 15:53	17%	5%	1.1%	69%
AA 3135 American Flight history →	PHL 16:00	JAX 18:29	18%	8%	1.1%	68%
AA 2940 American Flight history →	PHL 18:14	JAX 20:43	20%	7%	1.7%	62%
F9 2815 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 10:00	JAX 12:19	20%	6%	1.3%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON