Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2018 PHL 08:25 → LAS 10:42 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest F9 1601 PHL 11:06 → LAS 13:32 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2018 American Flight history →	PHL 08:25	LAS 10:42	15%	4%	0.7%	77%
AA 3250 American Flight history →	PHL 22:13	LAS 00:32	22%	7%	0.9%	65%
AA 3040 American Flight history →	PHL 15:55	LAS 18:22	23%	9%	0.8%	77%
AA 3005 American Flight history →	PHL 18:05	LAS 20:30	25%	9%	0.9%	71%
F9 1601 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 11:06	LAS 13:32	25%	9%	1.5%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHL 05:00 → DEN 07:00WN 2664	1h 30m Denver	DEN 08:30 → LAS 09:25WN 1024	7h 25m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 51m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	PHL 06:05 → STL 07:25WN 3227	1h 50m St Louis	STL 09:15 → LAS 10:40WN 2327	7h 35m	96%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON