Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1035 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1035 PHL 07:05 → LAX 09:52 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1284 PHL 18:01 → LAX 20:45 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1035 American Flight history →	PHL 07:05	LAX 09:52	9%	3%	0.7%	96%
AA 824 American Flight history →	PHL 08:26	LAX 11:14	12%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 2408 American Flight history →	PHL 11:00	LAX 13:46	13%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 2031 American Flight history →	PHL 13:22	LAX 16:05	13%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 798 American Flight history →	PHL 15:35	LAX 18:20	18%	6%	0.7%	73%
AA 738 American Flight history →	PHL 22:05	LAX 00:50	22%	6%	0.7%	62%
AA 2197 American Flight history →	PHL 19:52	LAX 22:55	24%	6%	0.7%	54%
AA 1284 American Flight history →	PHL 18:01	LAX 20:45	26%	7%	0.8%	46%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHL 06:10 → IAD 07:19UA 3693 · flown by Republic	1h 51m Dulles	IAD 09:10 → LAX 11:39UA 1868	8h 29m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	2h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 30m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	8h 30m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON