Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 868 PHL 10:43 → MCI 12:46 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2901 PHL 20:05 → MCI 22:24 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 868 American Flight history →	PHL 10:43	MCI 12:46	14%	4%	0.7%	79%
AA 2875 American Flight history →	PHL 14:28	MCI 16:41	15%	6%	0.7%	65%
AA 2901 American Flight history →	PHL 20:05	MCI 22:24	20%	8%	0.8%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	52m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826	4h 34m	94%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON