Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2093 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2093 PHL 07:00 → MCO 09:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 2505 PHL 16:49 → MCO 19:54 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2093 American Flight history →	PHL 07:00	MCO 09:44	8%	3%	15.6%	98%
AA 2101 American Flight history →	PHL 08:27	MCO 11:12	15%	4%	16.8%	87%
F9 2415 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 05:25	MCO 07:55	16%	6%	13.7%	80%
AA 2125 American Flight history →	PHL 11:02	MCO 13:47	17%	6%	18.4%	55%
AA 2065 American Flight history →	PHL 12:16	MCO 14:59	18%	7%	17.7%	66%
F9 1807 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 08:10	MCO 10:52	22%	7%	16.1%	78%
AA 2109 American Flight history →	PHL 14:02	MCO 16:46	23%	8%	17.4%	65%
AA 3268 American Flight history →	PHL 19:35	MCO 22:43	23%	9%	17.4%	78%
F9 2507 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 10:11	MCO 12:56	25%	9%	17.2%	70%
WN 3222 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 13:50	MCO 16:20	27%	8%	15.5%	65%
AA 2531 American Flight history →	PHL 18:05	MCO 20:54	29%	9%	17.4%	59%
AA 1673 American Flight history →	PHL 16:13	MCO 18:57	29%	10%	17.4%	53%
F9 4173 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 12:46	MCO 15:30	30%	11%	16.1%	65%
F9 2505 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 16:49	MCO 19:54	31%	15%	17.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON