Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4202 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4202 PHL 08:00 → MDW 09:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 2756 PHL 17:20 → MDW 18:30 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4202 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 08:00	MDW 09:05	9%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 3224 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 11:20	MDW 12:30	13%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 4837 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 12:50	MDW 13:50	17%	4%	0.6%	69%
WN 3226 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 18:55	MDW 20:20	23%	8%	0.7%	62%
WN 2756 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 17:20	MDW 18:30	28%	8%	0.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON